The Mayans: An Introduction

I will now move to the past and talk about long term climate change (approx. within 800 years) and how it created and destroyed a civilization and the implication for modern day society.

Fig 1: Source Kennett et al 2012

Kennett et al 2012 explained that changes in climate in the region are largely due to the northward shift of the ITCZ. This means monsoon would be further to the north and making the climate wetter. This correlates to the YOK-I records (fig 1) in the early classics (400-500CE) with higher rainfall than the previous years. This has benefited cities in the central Peten region (like Tikal, Calakmul, Caracol and Naranjo) because they could maintain a larger population since the rate of recharge of water resources (wetland and constructed water storage system) outstrips the demand for water.  During this period, unusually high rainfall led to the expansion of population.

Fig 2: Source Kennett et al 2012

 Munson et al (2009) showed when a large number of monuments are built in cities it correlates to an increase in political vulnerably of the king. Therefore, the upward trend in fig 2A,C,D during the dry period in 560-640CE would suggest increased political instability and competition between polities. The institution of divine kingship meant that citizens were more likely to blame the kings/ruler for ‘not bringing rain and prosperity’. Therefore, it is likely social disorder within cities also occurred (e.g. in the city of Copan) (Diamond 2011., Kennett et al 2012).

According to Demarest (2004), the first sign of a breakdown in their political system (due to dry climate) occurred between 760-800CE in the region of Petexbatun which led to increased levels of interpolity warfare. Between 790 and 900CE the institution of divine kingship collapsed (Kennett et al 2012). This showcased the people's unrest with the rich and royals. 

fig 3 source Neff et al (2006)

The Petexbatun episode indicates the vulnerability of the Mayan political system to climate changes. The following episode of drying (fig2) further reduced the agricultural yields which had already been weakened by previous droughts. This combination led more widespread political disintegration between 800-900CE which is corresponded by decreased numbers of carved stone monuments (fig2). The next extreme drying lasted for around 80 years between 1020-1100CE, which was the longest and dries interval of the past 2000 years and led to further population decline. This ultimately ended the tradition of carvings monuments at Chichen Itza.

Additionally, there was significant temporal differences in the distribution of drought shown by sediment core MAN015 from the pacific coastal Guatemala (Neff et al (2006)). From fig 4b and 4c we could see a slight drop in metals and increase in Rb/A1 ration in 1900 cal yr B.P which shows that the pacific Guatemala during were dry. Contrary to Haug et al 2001 which found that the Cariaco Basin showed no signs of drying conditions.

Fig 4 source Neff et al (2006)

Under the classic period, conditional was so favorable in the Pacific Guatemala that population expanded dramatically. Even the poor agriculture region of Manchon showed steep decrease in forest cover and increase in charcoal concentration which peaked at around 1250 cal yr B.P (fig.6d). Additionally, the high phytolith aridity indices beginning at 1600 cal yr B.P. (fig 6e) also suggest an increasingly open and human modified landscape. This showcased the geographical extent of the Mayan population boom and also the significance of favorable climate in relation to the construction of complex civilizations. However, much of the lowlands of northern Guatemala and pacific coast remained depopulated until the Pre-Hispanic period even after the postclassic dry period (Neff et al 2006).

Not all places are affect at the same time and that the magnitude of the drying depends on a city’s surround environment (Neff et al (2006)). For example, the Northern Yucatan had experience a more humid period around AD 900 relative to other regions in Mesoamerica(Hodell et al 2005). Although the northern region had less rainfall compared to the Southern Mesoamerica it has relatively more dependable fresh water sources like Cenotes (Peterson and Haug 2005). This meant it was better able to adopt to rapid climate changes which supported ‘greater continuity in population’ throughout the span of Mayan civilization, up until late Postclassic period (Neff et al 2006, Diamond 2011)

Conclusion

1. It was ‘mostly’ the result of natural weather pattern contrary to the present. It was the influence of ITCZ
2. The wet period coincided with the growth of agriculture (and hence deforestation), which supported and enabled a growing population. It also reinforced the power of kings at cities who claimed they brought prosperity and rain.
3. The evidence from Neff et al and Kennett et al both points to major disruptions that occurred throughout southern Mesoamerican around 800AD.
4. The Mayan collapse was a gradual process; Kennett et al (2012) suggest its a “two-stage” collapse, that varied geographically and temporally with the Northern Mesoamerica being the ‘safe heaven’ throughout the entire Mayan civilization. More intriguingly, the collapse of Mayan political system and cultural happened ‘before the collapse’ of its population.

Analogies to modern civilization

It is important to recognize that even though with our technological advances, our agriculture system is still vulnerable to the climatic system, just like the Mayans. Especially in places like areas like Africa it could lead wide spread fame, social disorder and civil war could even arise. The Horn of Africa famine is one such example in 2011. With the globalization of supply chain, a climatic event in one corner of the earth could have unintended consequences in other places, hence millions could be affected. This was also the case when the Russia had bad harvest of wheat in 2012, causing a price hike in the international market. The future form of social disorder will likely to involve massive prices rises.

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