Sunday 27 October 2013

Cattle Cataclysm; 100,000 dead



I came over this story actually on Facebook this week and then I found the blog and its blogger 'Dairy Carrie' who was responsible for this coverage. 

Surprisingly, this wasn't even covered in any news, given the scale and devastation it had caused. After a week, we can find some places where it has been reported. The Guardian also covered this story and can be found here. Fox news also covered it and can be found here


It was very concerning to read the blog and articles that covered this event. I urge you to read it if you haven't done so. I have to say is really relevant to my topic of interest. This is a case of localized abrupt climate changes and how it had created social disorder. In terms of the affects to the future of cattle supply, the local economy, and the disruption to the ranchers themselves, both emotionally and economically. 

I quote from the farmers affected by this; 

"Livestock were initially soaked by 12 hours of rain before 48 consecutive hours or snow and winds up to 60 mph.""The livestock loss is just catastrophic ... It's pretty unbelievable.""We just had one of the worst droughts ever and now we take a hit like this."
From that we could see how surprised they were by this snow storm happening during this period! The cattle themselves can normally deal with the cold since they will grow fur when winter comes, but this storm came in such a time that even the biological evolution of the animals did not foresee. Shows how abnormal this event is! Actually, it also shows how vulnerable our food supply is to changes in climate. What if changes in future climate would mean this kind of events will become more common around the world and the chaos and social disorder it causes might be multiple times worse, and with further geographical extent!

I will leave you with a note with regards to the 'Hurricane force' storm that's about to hit the UK. How much chaos will it cause? Are we prepared for it? And ask yourself this, if climate change in the future means more hurricane level storms will hit the UK, will social disorder arise (eg in all aspects like economic, environmental, political etc)?! For one I believe the UK is not at its slightest prepared for wind storms of this caliber.



Wednesday 23 October 2013

Who is this guy?

This guy, Jared Diamond, is one of the authors that inspired me to write this blog. The below video from TED gives an insight about the him and how he approaches the topic

He listed a 5 point framework of the major factors that can contribute to a society collapsing:


  • Neighboring friendly societies
  • neighboring unfriendly societies
  • Climate change
  • Social/political/economic forces
  • Destruction of their environment or resource base
This blog will expand the last three factors with examples in future post! I hope his talk gave you an introduction into how climate change relate to social disorder/collapse. 

For those who are interested he has a booked called Collapse, info about his book can be found here






Sunday 20 October 2013

Rapid climate change and the Norse

The Holocene is the current geological epoch which started 11,500 years ago when the glaciers began to retreat. More details of the kind of animal or a background can be found here.

So what is RCC ? It refers to a the major periods of rapid climate change as described by P.A. Mayewski et al.(2004)

Why RCC ? Changes in the Holocene both in terms of magnitude and rapidity are incomparable to the last glacial age. On the other hand, from a perspective in terms of the development of humanity and the growth of civilization, these rapid changes in climate (in the space of few hundred years or shorter) had a major impact on humanity and society. 

Therefore, we must look into the Holocene climatic history as this would help us understand better about the relationship between rapid climate change and the destruction/construction of civilizations 

For now, looking at the Holocene in general P.A. Mayewski et al.(2004) acknowledged that its climate variations “have been larger and more frequent” than previously thought.Below is a concise and clear picture of the major periods of rapid climate change (RCC) around the globe from the same paper.






There are a few important features that should be noted from the diagram:

·        During most of these periods there are abrupt climate changes even in the absence of large unstable ice sheet such as that during the Pleistocene period.
·        Climate change is not singular for anyone place, it varies depending on the geographical location. (Please enlarge the diagram to make it clearer!)

There are multiple factors that contributed to the changes in climate throughout the different periods within the Holocene. Some of these include; hydrological cycles, sea level, sea ice extent (forest cover) and solar variability.




Greenland is a good example of how abrupt climate change had create societal disorder in the Norse civilization and in turn contributed to its collapse. The Norse arrived at Greenland after AD 985 (Seaver 2010). As shown in below's graph, the arrive of the Norse coincided with the Medieval warm period (AD1000-AD1400) which had allowed them to expand.  (Mann 2002,.Ogilvie and McGovern 2000) It was estimated that at the time it was around 4 degree warmer than in the 20th century (Arneborg 2008). They had a pastoral economy and kept cattle sheep and goats for winter food. The little ice age commenced after  AD 1400 and this associated  the collapse of Norse Greenland. However, things were more complicated than that. We must examine a wide range of factors in order to understand that a complex system led to the collapse, contributed directly and indirect by abrupt changes. We must move away from the notion that cooling was the singular problem.

Evidence was clear that during the period, sea level started rising and fertile lowland, used by the Norse during their colonization was drowned. In places more than 200ha of fertile land was lost. Thus, rising sea level had destroyed their land for pastures. Additionally, the increasing wetter and colder period had meant fodder collection and successful wintering of livestock decreased dramatically (Amorosi et al. 1997). In turn, the Norse did adopted to changes, contrary to others, shown by their diet from mainly dairy products and terrestrial food to marine food. Date from clothing found that Norse did live their in AD 1430, contrary to Orlove (2005) who subscribed their collapse between 1350-1400 AD.

Increases in Sea Ice and storms had a major impact on their society. A research conducted by Jensen et al (2004)  showed that sea-ice diatoms increased suddenly between the period 1245-1589 and this represented cooler climate. At the same time, the presences of Benthos and Atlanic species points to strong wind activities. More storms might salt was blow from the sea to inland area. This had affect area for grazing and in turn their livestock (Diamond 2005). Sea ice had meant that trading with Europe became harder and less attractive. Wood was one of the goods that Nose brings back from Europe which were use for warmth during long winters as woods were difficult to find in Greenland (Dugmore et al 2007). Flour was also traded for food to supplement their diet and the volume of flour traded was hindered by increasing level of sea ice.  Demand for walrus hide used for making ropes dropped dramatically when Europe developed the hemp ropes (a cheaper alternative). The development of dried Atlantic cod around 1100AD also hampered Norse economy in relation to Europe. Also, evidence showed that mass production was evident in Greenland since densely packed fish bones were found in the Northern and Western region (Dugmore et al 2007)

Evidence by Mainland (2006) using dental microwear analysis showed that sheep and goats in Greenland have a high level of soil ingestion. This suggest overgrazing occurred. This pattern was found in the in both Eastern and  Western settlements form 1150 onwards until 14th and 15th century. Combined with the cooler climate and worsen status of their environment their living quality is decreasing and societal disorder could be present in towards the end of their civilization around the early 14th century. Given that evidence were found that Norse was still present in 1450, we could estimate that people staying leaving slowly.

The above have shown that societal disorder rose from environmental degradation and changes in commerce. Directly impacted by a cooler climate, rising sea level and increases in sea ice cover. These had all lowered their ability to adopt. Thus, this example have showed how abrupt changes in climate led to the demise of the Norse civilization in Greenland. 
Source Mann (2002)








Thursday 17 October 2013

An Introduction


This clip from ‘The Day After Tomorrow’ got me wondering whether our society would be unprepared for changes in our future climate. The film depicts an abrupt overhaul of earth’s climate within a few days. The ‘hollywoodisation’ of our climate system remains in the realm of science fiction. 

However, it does beg the question of what would happen to our society if we experience these changes to our climate? Are we sufficiently prepared - or even have we been preparing - for the chaos to come? The philosophers George Santayana and G. W. F. Hegel wrote;


                      "Those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it"1                                                              - G. Santayana  

“What experience and history teach is this — that nations and governments have never learned anything from history, or acted upon any lessons they might have drawn from it” 2            
                                - G.W.F. Hegel 


The above quotations reinforced the need to ‘learn from history’. This blog will refer to examples from history and look at how societal disorder have risen. But more importantly, it will look for areas of vulnerability that could lead to future societal disorder. These are important as this blog will later shows that often climate changes creates indirect influences which amplifies the negative affect of climate change on society. Also, it give insights into whether there are similarities between past and present events in order to highlight areas where we could learn from the past.