Methods of prevention and increase adaptability to off-set societal disorder

It’s not all doom and gloom and that there are a wide availability of literature that talks about how to increase adoptability of agriculture to future climate change. As pointed out last week that Africa remains predominately a rain-fed agriculture system. Currently within season rainfall variability is already causing concerns, and in the future it is predicted to be more likely (Cooper et al 2008). Below we can see that IPCC prediction for rainfall is highly uncertain in that these modelling cannot give a definitive answer as to rainfall in general will decrease or increase. So can farmers cope with these future changes especially those in the arid regions?

Human-side approach to future decrease in crop yield

Farmers have their own methods, but Cooper et al are sceptical at their future effectiveness because they mainly perform the task of “risk spreading”. For example, to cope with drier environments, pastoralist would hold a larger number, with anticipation that a number of them will die and still be able to make a profit. However, this tends to lead to overgrazing and overstocking. Not only does this have a negative impact on the environment, it also doesn’t improve resilience and could led to future societal disorder in these farming communities in Africa. Which also contribute to the wider security concern in Africa (Will go more indepth in the next post) (Cooper et al 2008).

Cooper et al (2008) largely comes from a humanistic approach and relays heavily on investment. They believe that the best way to enhance adoptability is to increase a community’s livelihood assets. To do this, there much be “investment into crop tolerance to drought, improving water productivity, integrated management of land and water”. An example from India where income from agriculture fell from 88 to 47% due to a drier climate over a 25 year period. They adopted by diversifying their livelihood strategies by increase their income through non-farming activities. This may not be applicable in Africa since some places are very rural, but can be used in most cases. This result from India is that there current income is greater than from just farming. This means they are actually better off. The downside is that this approach depends largely on investment and local politics. These could be problematic in some places and I have reservations for it.

An environmental approach to compliment increase in livelihood assets- through local knowledge

This is an alternative approach to Cooper et al (2008)’s approach to improve livelihood assets. To some extent, this relays less on the socially controversial GM approach (as cooper et al proposed). GM crops have been widely debated and the positives of GM crops has been discussed in-depth in this blog entry. Knox et al (2013) found that there is a consensus that there is a lack of evidence for the negative impact of GM crops adaptation. Therefore GM crops can be use inline with agroforestry.

Ofori et al (2014) has recommended that the increase domestication of high-value trees species in the agricultural landscape in Africa. Similar to the progress made by Coffee, Coca, Rubber around the world. However, they suggest that it should be a bottom-up approach to minimise the environmental impact we seen from the damages seen in Rubber etc.

The benefit of agroforestry is immense. It will contribute to the overall improvement and resilience of Africa farmers in rural settings. The upward trend in population will led to future demand for resources and tree domestication would satisfy this demand. The results have been seen in Central Africa, where the bottom-up approach to domestication has resulted in improvement in incomes, diets and rural business development. In most cases, the has been adopted alongside of other farming activities which reduces vulnerability by spreading risk and generating higher incomes which has increased wellbeing (Ofori et al 2014)

An example would be the domestication of Allanblackia tree found in wild in the humid forest of central, east and west Africa. Referring to last post, these places coincides with future reduction in crop yield, the seeds of the tree has significant future potential in the global food market (>100,000 tones annually). Again, this could increase the income of farmers and bring greater resilience to climate change. (Ofori et al 2014)

Bayala et al (2014) looks more in-depth into agroforestry parklands and looks at the relationship between trees and crop in more depth. Soil carbon is a major limiting factor in semi arid areas where it has negative impact on crop growth and productivity. Beyala et al (2014) found that trees in agroforestry parkland systems have a “direct positive contribution to soil carbon content”, this means this would be important in encouraging this method of adaptation in semi-arid areas. There has been uncertainty in the idea about trees and its contribution to soil fertility and Sanou et al (2012,) have claimed that they actually compete with crops. At the same time, Bayala et al 2008 have shown that a root of trees and crops actually coincide and competes with each other. However, with the right kind of crops and tree combination, Bayala et al (2014) points out positive effect on soil fertility was observed.

This approach utilities local knowledge and with the correct implementation method (bottom-up) the negative environmental effect seen with other agroforestry like Coca or rubber can be mitigated. At the same time, it has a positive impact for farmers livelihood assets which increase their adoptability to future climate change. Coupled with the positive impact agroforestry on the nutrition cycle and food security, it could mitigate future food crisis as shown in the last entry and represent and compliments Cooper et al’s approach. 

Africa and water; disorder in the form of food insecurity

 Precipitation changes due to Climate change

Fig 2 Source: 

Fig 1 Source: IPCCAR4 2007 Fig 11.1 

(2080-2099 relative to 1980-1990)

The IPCC 2007 report suggested that climate change will lead warming of between 3-4C over this this century. However, the effects of climate change in terms of precipitation are predicted to differ across Africa as shown in Fig 2, which suggest there will be wetter futures in the humid tropics and drier futures in semiarid regions. It must be noted that significant variability exist in the modelling and is displayed more so for the Sahel region where the observation of rainfall in the past few decades doesn't correlate with the results from the modelling for the present and future level of rainfall (Hulme et al 2001)

 Intensification of precipitation

Fig 3 Allen et al (2010) 

Allan and Soden (2008) suggest that there will be fewer low and medium intensity precipitation events and more extreme events of very heavy precipitation. They point out that the effect of atmospheric warming on the increases of extreme rainfall is underpredicted when models are compared to observation.  In order words, they predict there will be larger variability in precipitation in the future.

Allen et al (2010) (fig 3) showed that current changes in the tropical precipitation regime are inline with future projections – there have been more heavy precipitation (shown by >70 percentile) and  less light precipitation (shown by <60 percentile) (fig 3). This is a course for concern as below will demonstrate.  

Effects of change in precipitation on crop yield

Fig 5: Top A, Bottom B Source(Challinor et al 2006).

Drawing from examples in India figure 5A and 5B. It shows explicitly show how increase variability in rainfall reduces crop yield. In both figures, the total rainfall is around 390mm, with 5A at 394mm and 5B at 389mm. However, the level of rainfall in 5A is more spread out with less variability and in 5B the contrary is true. There yield is 1369kg/Ha and 901 kg/ha respectively (Challinor et al 2006). Cooper et al (2008) found similar results in Kenya, where maize productivity deceased due to higher within season variability of rainfall. Additionally, very intense rainfall, hail and drought would also damage crops and reduces yields, which could become more common as our climate changes with more variability and more extreme weather events (Requejo et al 2011).

Effects of changes in precipitation on water scarcity

Fig 4 source: Showing the number of people living in watershed with an increasing water stress by region in 2055, with different amounts of global temperature change relative to 1961-1990. Changes in temperature and rainfall derived from HadCM3 

What would this mean in terms of water stress/scarcity under a background of projected population growth in Africa (and around the world) and in some cases falling precipitation? Currently, 62.1% of Africa’s population still live in rural area and with an urban growth rate of nearly 4% per year (UNEP). Since urban population consume more water it is really a concern for the future, and perhaps a source of conflict.  

Fig 4 shows the projected number of people under water stress using different climate scenario. These are worrying projections, showing the number affected could reach from just 40 to 350 million. They also show varying degrees of impact between regions. Interestingly, the increase in the number of people under water stress in Central Africa only starts to increase steeply after a 1 degree increase (Arnell 2006)

Rise of disorder: Case study of 2007-08 riots 

Map 1 Source: Source Berazneva and Lee 2011

90% of staple food production will continue to come from rain-fed farming systems, the effects of a more variable rainfall regime will be a major concern for the future Cooper et al (2008). The 5th IPCC plenary session in Geneva to “[b]y 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50%, as a consequence of climate variability and change”. A report by World Food Programme places emphasized on the role of price hikes as a contributor to societal disorder within countries. Although the linkages between food insecurity and interstate conflict are thought with uncertainties  (Brinkman and Hendrix 2011). . Drawing from the 2007-2008 riots, we could understand how future increases in food prices (via decreased food yield due to climate change) could lead to wide spread societal disorder in Africa.

During the 2007-2008 food protest and riots occurred in 48 countries  (Brinkman and Hendrix 2011, BBC 2008,Berazneva and Lee 2011). In Africa, riots occurred in at least 14 countries. As Map 1 shows, not all places incurred societal disorder which highlights the complexity of the contributing factors of food riots and I only explained the environmental factor in detail in the context of Africa (there are many other factors but the topic is too large to cover in my blog).As Nelson et al (2009) points out, climate change will lead to increasing food prices and price volatility for staple crops like rice, wheat, maize and soybeans. So which countries will be most vulnerable to societal disorder in the future? Looking at the 2007-08 riots, Berazneva and Lee (2011) findings showed those countries with higher levels of human poverty and less political freedom are more prone to rioting. Additionally, countries with cities over 1 million people are estimated to be 24-25x greater to experience riots. This was the case for 11/13 countries that experienced rioting. This is a worrying statistic since urbanization is increasing dramatically in Africa, coupled with increasing water stress in most places in Africa, this would certainly contribute to the ‘risk factors’ of food rioting/revolution.  

The future of crop yield and potential for rise of disorder  

Fig 6 Source

Could more rioting occur in Africa in the future?  Calzadilla et al (2013) results showed that under climate change, production of agriculture products in the Sub-Saharan Africa increase (Wheat, Oil seeds) and all the other decreases (fig4). More importantly, it indicates increases in domestic food price, from 3% to more than 7% (fig4).This could recreate the food rioting episode from 2007-08. However, it is important to note that the effects of price increase will not be homogeneous across Sub-Saharan Africa (Brinkman and Hendrix 2011).  Exploring the effects of future agriculture yield from a world perspective, we could see that from Wheeler and Braun (2013)(Map 2) their projections for 2050’s decrease in crop productivity coincides with regions that have problems with hunger as shown in map 3, measured by the global hunger index. Their study also showed that yields of major crops grown in Africa and South Asia will decline by 8% by 2050. Wheat and Maize are expected to decline by 17% and 5% respective in Africa. While in Asia maize and sorghum is expected to decline by 16% and 11% respectively.  Although there are limitations with modelling, Knox et al (2012) have high confidence that the data for the above crop productivity are significant and robust! These crop yield decreases coupled with rising prices could lead to more episode of food rioting seen in 2007-08 and even

Map 3 Source

Map 2 Source 

One of the main limitation of Wheeler and Braun (2013) paper is that there modelling doesn't account for changes in the productivity of grazing land and hence the effects of cattle. Since meat is vital for both food supply and some economies, it could further reveal how increase meat prices could affect for both LDC and more importantly MDC. Would increases in meat prices cause similar effects as seen with increases in stable crops? Could it fuel more rioting and contribute to revolutionary riots?

More importantly, looking at Map 2 the Middle East is also vulnerable to decreased crop yields. Currently, they are using their wealth from natural resources to import  and subsidies many of their staple food productions. This could be a future source of societal disorder when their resources run out and they couldn't support their subsidization of their agricultural economy (Brinkman and Hendrix 2011). Much similar to Japan’s scraping of their agricultural subsidies for their rice farming (FT 2013). In the future more dire consequences would occur in the Middle East.

My opinion 

What I presented above is the mechanism between decreased crop yield (via climate change) and the rise of food rioting in the future. Drawing from current riots I showed the factors that contributed to the vulnerability of rioting.Coupled with model simulation of future crop yield decrease, and hence the rise of prices (via the mechanism of supple and demand). I believe I presented a strong case that some countries in Africa WILL be vulnerable in the next 50 years, whiles other countries in Africa and Middle East with natural resource wealth are likely to be able to combat higher food prices via welfare benefits, keeping their citizen happy. This won't be sustainable and it is only a short term method of prevention. Coupled with the overwheling fact that Africa still heavily relys on rain-fed agricultural systems, the picture for Africa is even more bleak. 

Insightful documentary on the Mayan. A MUST!

Without writing too much the above documentary 'Engineering an Empire- The Mayans' by the History Channel would be a good summing up of the section on Mayans. Its insightful and further demonstrates the linkages between societal disorder and the environment. 

An interesting example from the above documentary (@31:00) is the use of Sacbe or 'White roads. Not only it is a symbol of alliance and power for two cities but also a symbol of engineering marvel. This has more important implication; it is one of the methods for the citizens of Southern lowland to migrate from the negative effects of climate change. A method of efficient migration for the survivors  to move to other cities or/and to rebuilding of new cities. This is one of the reasons why the city of Chichen Itza become so power in the late 10th and early 11th century.  This demonstrated how Mayan engineering actually mitigated societal disorder in the Southern city by proving a 'way out' to the Northern Yucatan. Blow is an image of Sacbe. 

Next entry I will look at how changes in precipitation could cause societal disorder in the present and drawing extensively on Africa as a case study. Could the same fate for the Mayans happen to Africa in the future as climate change worsens? 

Source: Google image 

Should the Mayans be blamed for their own tragedy?

While doing my last blog I wondered…if we are now facing the consequences of exploiting our own natural resources, then could the Mayans also have contributed to the worsening of their own drying throughout the classic-postclassic period.

A recent paper by Medina-Elizalde and Rohling (2012) highlighted the fact that the ecological carrying capacity of the Yucatan Peninsula is highly sensitive to precipitation reductions. They found reductions in the frequency and intensity of cyclones over the Yucatan Peninsula which coincided with the collapse of the empire. They estimated this reduction is up to 40% mostly during the summer season. Did human influences on land cover intensify the drought condition?

Figure 1: Source Cook et al (2012) 

Figure 2: Source Cook et al (2012) 

Cook et al (2012) suggest deforestation by the Mayans had indeed influenced their climatic system to a drier mean state. Using a “new suite of climate model” they found a few interesting results:

Precipitation level

There result suggested an annual 5%-15% decrease in precipitation due to deforestation, located in regions with the most land cover change in Southern Mexico and Yucatan peninsula as shown in Fig.1 and Fig 2a. As Fig2b the reduction in precipitation is largely driven by 10%-20% reduction.

This modelling differed to Medina-Elizalde and Rohling (2012), hence it shows the constraints between using peloclimatic data and modelling. But both agreed that deforestation increases dryness.  

Figure 3: Source Cook et al (2012) 

Figure 4: Source Cook et al (2012) 

Driver of Drought

Modelling conducted here differed to Oglesby et al (2010) which found that drought was accelerated by thermal mountain effect. Cook et al (2012) paper showed that it was due to the reduction in available energy. From fig 3 we can see that the net radiation at the surface decreases. This can be explained by a shift from dense forest to domestic crops, which led to increases in the surface albedo.  Fig 3b also shows decline in laten heat, also due to the increased area of crops which has shallower roots and lower leaf area. Given the above factors, this would lead to a reduction of shallow convective cloud cover as shown in Fig 4a, and in turn lower levels of precipitation.  Fig 4b and 4c showed that deforestation leads to an increase in cloud top temperature. This would suggest a lower elevation of cloud tops and a reduction in cloud water content. They all point towards a lower convective activity which is consistent which fig 2b that shown a decreased in precipitation level  

Implication of results

Since the deforestation scenario uses peak population and deforestation level, it can be used as an analogue for the conditions during the 800-950CE. This provides an insight into the fact that the growth of the Mayans acted as a ‘double edged sword’. The extent of deforestation, and given the Yucatan peninsula has a high sensitive to precipitation change, they exemplified the drought that occurred. They estimated that deforestation contributed to between 12.5% - 60% of total drying. Coupled with the fact that the modelling showed the location of severe drought coincided with regional centers of the Terminal and Postclassic period, it further reinforeces the causality between climate change and political stability, demographic decreases and cultural change.  It is important to note that the stimulation does not answer the question of why the Southern Mayan lowlands collapsed before the more arid northern Yucatan.

The other side of the story

McNeill (2012) showed a host of sustainable engineering and policy that were implemented across Mesoamerica during the Classic period. This discussion extents Cook et al (2012) quantitative modelling and give more depth into our discussion.  Below are some of the examples:

The management of forest

a.     The elite certainly contributed: This is in the interest of the elite to maintain forests because it produces symbols of elitism, like deer and caco meat, valuable woods, jaguar pelts and bird feathers.

b.     A source of construction. In the city of Tikal, during the class Maya they used to use Manikara zapota (M.Z) woods which grow in moist tropic forest. Research showed they use freshly cuts woods instead of old trees (Lentz and Hockaday 2009) in AD766 the builders of Tika used a different tree called Haematoxylon campechianum L.  For 40 years they allowed for the M.Z trees to recovery before using it again as a construction material

c.     In the late classics, tropical forest were close to the city and there were evidence of the preservation of historic tress (Harrison 1999)

Farming Techniques

a.     Use of ridged fields, although not common, helps aerate the soil, concentrate topsoil and focus greater amounts of moisture around plants. One such example is the 6^th Century AD site of Ceren in El Salvador.

b.     Terraces were found across Lowland Mayan area (Wyatt 2008). With the aim of retaining, preserving and catching runoff soil. But Dunning (1996) noted not all places uses this technology, as in the case of Puuc Maya in the Yucatan Peninsula, despite being located in a hilly terrain.

McNeil (2012) rejects the idea that the Mayans of the late classic period should be blamed for the environmental devastation that was observed during that period. Instead, he champions the idea that the Mayans in the classic period learnt from their ancestors in the pre-classic era which caused environmental damages across Maya lowland through swidden agriculture. Out of necessity, the Mayans developed the above sustainable techniques to increase the efficiency of agriculture in order to satisfy demand.  At the end of the Classic period, some areas like Copan actually experienced an increased in forest cover (McNeil 2012).

Conclusion

There are inherent problems with modelling. The fact that the model Cook et al (2012) used could not incorporate spatial patterns of land cover change at a higher resolution and that uncertainties exist with the estimation of land cover changes could underestimate the effectiveness of the Mayan's sustainable technique and policy. However, not all places were implemented with these techniques and uncertainty lies within the extent that these sustainable techniques could increase agricultural output without deforesting more land. I believe that deforestation is inevitable and deforestation as Cook et al (2012) showed certainly have contributed to drier climates during between 800-950CE. However, uncertainty lies within earlier dates - within early and mid-classic period - where population growth/density were lower. This could imply sustainable agricultural technology could produce enough food without the need for Mayans to cause mass deforestation. In turn, the drying effect from deforestation should be much lower during the early/mid-classic period.  Nevertheless, the Mayans should take partial responsibility for exploiting nature. 

Analogy to modern society 

It is important to note Cook et al's is significant in the sense that if climatic change undermines our agricultural system in areas like Africa or Europe it could lead to wide spread social disorder or even war. Given we live in an age of globalization this will draw in others. Also, the paper highlights the dangers of deforestation and the 'knock on effects' it has in the climate system. McNeil's paper is equally important and it suggest to us that even though the Mayans are aware of the consequences of deforestation, and have ways of mitigating the effect through better technology, but they still fail to solve the inherent problem of sharing resources with too many people - especially when resources where decreasing due to climate change. This is an important lesson as our modern society should wake up, and not get dragged down by global institutions on climate reform and scapegoating the poor nations (see my last post here). We should start reforms within developing and rich nations TODAY. 

The Mayans: An Introduction

I will now move to the past and talk about long term climate change (approx. within 800 years) and how it created and destroyed a civilization and the implication for modern day society.

Fig 1: Source Kennett et al 2012

Kennett et al 2012 explained that changes in climate in the region are largely due to the northward shift of the ITCZ. This means monsoon would be further to the north and making the climate wetter. This correlates to the YOK-I records (fig 1) in the early classics (400-500CE) with higher rainfall than the previous years. This has benefited cities in the central Peten region (like Tikal, Calakmul, Caracol and Naranjo) because they could maintain a larger population since the rate of recharge of water resources (wetland and constructed water storage system) outstrips the demand for water.  During this period, unusually high rainfall led to the expansion of population.

Fig 2: Source Kennett et al 2012

 Munson et al (2009) showed when a large number of monuments are built in cities it correlates to an increase in political vulnerably of the king. Therefore, the upward trend in fig 2A,C,D during the dry period in 560-640CE would suggest increased political instability and competition between polities. The institution of divine kingship meant that citizens were more likely to blame the kings/ruler for ‘not bringing rain and prosperity’. Therefore, it is likely social disorder within cities also occurred (e.g. in the city of Copan) (Diamond 2011., Kennett et al 2012).

According to Demarest (2004), the first sign of a breakdown in their political system (due to dry climate) occurred between 760-800CE in the region of Petexbatun which led to increased levels of interpolity warfare. Between 790 and 900CE the institution of divine kingship collapsed (Kennett et al 2012). This showcased the people's unrest with the rich and royals. 

fig 3 source Neff et al (2006)

The Petexbatun episode indicates the vulnerability of the Mayan political system to climate changes. The following episode of drying (fig2) further reduced the agricultural yields which had already been weakened by previous droughts. This combination led more widespread political disintegration between 800-900CE which is corresponded by decreased numbers of carved stone monuments (fig2). The next extreme drying lasted for around 80 years between 1020-1100CE, which was the longest and dries interval of the past 2000 years and led to further population decline. This ultimately ended the tradition of carvings monuments at Chichen Itza.

Additionally, there was significant temporal differences in the distribution of drought shown by sediment core MAN015 from the pacific coastal Guatemala (Neff et al (2006)). From fig 4b and 4c we could see a slight drop in metals and increase in Rb/A1 ration in 1900 cal yr B.P which shows that the pacific Guatemala during were dry. Contrary to Haug et al 2001 which found that the Cariaco Basin showed no signs of drying conditions.

Fig 4 source Neff et al (2006)

Under the classic period, conditional was so favorable in the Pacific Guatemala that population expanded dramatically. Even the poor agriculture region of Manchon showed steep decrease in forest cover and increase in charcoal concentration which peaked at around 1250 cal yr B.P (fig.6d). Additionally, the high phytolith aridity indices beginning at 1600 cal yr B.P. (fig 6e) also suggest an increasingly open and human modified landscape. This showcased the geographical extent of the Mayan population boom and also the significance of favorable climate in relation to the construction of complex civilizations. However, much of the lowlands of northern Guatemala and pacific coast remained depopulated until the Pre-Hispanic period even after the postclassic dry period (Neff et al 2006).

Not all places are affect at the same time and that the magnitude of the drying depends on a city’s surround environment (Neff et al (2006)). For example, the Northern Yucatan had experience a more humid period around AD 900 relative to other regions in Mesoamerica(Hodell et al 2005). Although the northern region had less rainfall compared to the Southern Mesoamerica it has relatively more dependable fresh water sources like Cenotes (Peterson and Haug 2005). This meant it was better able to adopt to rapid climate changes which supported ‘greater continuity in population’ throughout the span of Mayan civilization, up until late Postclassic period (Neff et al 2006, Diamond 2011)

Conclusion

1. It was ‘mostly’ the result of natural weather pattern contrary to the present. It was the influence of ITCZ
2. The wet period coincided with the growth of agriculture (and hence deforestation), which supported and enabled a growing population. It also reinforced the power of kings at cities who claimed they brought prosperity and rain.
3. The evidence from Neff et al and Kennett et al both points to major disruptions that occurred throughout southern Mesoamerican around 800AD.
4. The Mayan collapse was a gradual process; Kennett et al (2012) suggest its a “two-stage” collapse, that varied geographically and temporally with the Northern Mesoamerica being the ‘safe heaven’ throughout the entire Mayan civilization. More intriguingly, the collapse of Mayan political system and cultural happened ‘before the collapse’ of its population.

Analogies to modern civilization

It is important to recognize that even though with our technological advances, our agriculture system is still vulnerable to the climatic system, just like the Mayans. Especially in places like areas like Africa it could lead wide spread fame, social disorder and civil war could even arise. The Horn of Africa famine is one such example in 2011. With the globalization of supply chain, a climatic event in one corner of the earth could have unintended consequences in other places, hence millions could be affected. This was also the case when the Russia had bad harvest of wheat in 2012, causing a price hike in the international market. The future form of social disorder will likely to involve massive prices rises.

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Future social vulnerabilities of LDCs to climatic events.

The episode from Haiyan highlights the vulnerability of countries that are on the path of development; with 7% GDP growth this year and forecast of 6.1% growth in 2014. As less developed countries become richer and experiences high growth rates, does it mean their level of vulnerability decreases?

Patt el al used the method of linear extrapolation from observed disasters to model the future risk of people being affected and killed by climate events in LDCs. Fig.1A shows countries with HDI of around 0.5 has the highest risk from disaster (in this case the author included flood, drought and storm), whereas B shows HDI of around 0.6. The two graphs suggest that countries with HDI of less than 0.5 will implicitly means as their nation become more developed, they will become vulnerable to extreme events (being drought, flood and storms), assuming there are no targeted intervention. This is a worrying piece of data as many nations are becoming more developed, like the Philippines, and their vulnerability could translated into higher death rates and a lot more people could be affected. Could this be true?

Fig 1: source Patt et al 2010

Fig 2: Source Pett et al 2010

Fig.2 A shows the full set of alternative scenarios for the expected number of people affected by climate disasters and B shows the expected number being killed.  It is clear that with no development, there will be an upward trend in the number of people being affected and killed in LDCs on average due to extreme events.

More importantly, the result suggests that vulnerability may rise in the next two decades and start raising less in the three decades that follows, as in the case in scenario A2. On the other hand, in scenario B1 there might actually be a falling level of death and people being affected.

The implication of this research should be alarming, the fact that the majority of increases in vulnerability will happen in the next 20 years in LDCs. This points to an urgent and immediate need to give financial and technical assistances to LDCs in order to aid their adaptation and prevent disasters like Haiyan happening elsewhere. 

Personally, I think no matter how much CO2 emission could be reduced, increases in vulnerability will certainty exist in the next 20 years in LDCs. As humanity we should stop being so occupy with determining the numbers for the next Kyoto protocol in 2015 and actually start giving assistance to those who are in need.